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The Conflict in Ukraine continues with no end in the foreseeable future.  The talks in Minsk broke up Saturday with zero progress. The Ukrainian envoy said Russian-backed militant leaders refused to discuss ceasefire.  Ukraine Today reported “Peace talks in Minsk over the conflict in east Ukraine broke up on Saturday after four hours with no progress. Ukraine’s envoy accused representatives from the Russia-backed militants of undermining the meeting by making ultimatums and refusing to discuss plans for a ceasefire, according to the Interfax news agency.

Ukraine’s envoy accused representatives from the Russia-backed militants of undermining the meeting by making ultimatums and refusing to discuss plans for a ceasefire.

Putin Losing Allies

Stop Russian AggressionBelarus a longtime Russian ally headed by President Alexander Lukashenko is frightened with the idea of war and Putin’s aggression.  After the annexation of Crimea in March and the outbreak of war in eastern Ukraine in April; Lukashenko, considered to be the last dictator in Europe, did not hold back with his criticism of Putin… “No matter who comes to the Belarusian land, I will fight. Even if it is Putin.”  And so it seems that Putin will be standing alone in his quest to crush Ukraine with his blatant KGB tactics.  If Putin’s “friends” in the region do not agree with his aggression and he has fewer friends elsewhere, where will he be if he continues… Will he continue to be isolated further?

Why And Where Is Putin Going With This?

There are two schools of thought and even though there is a new agreement that came from Minsk, Putin has too much at stake to let the ceasefire continue.  The first belief of Putin’s endgame which is my belief, is that this is about reclaiming the satellite countries of the Former Soviet Union for two reasons.  One, Putin sees the West and NATO squeezing The Russian Federation into a dark lonely corner.  

With the breakup of the FSU Russia technically became landlocked and lost a lot of water access for The Russian Federation.
But, all one has to do is look at a world map of that part of the world and it is easy to see a more important issue.  With the break up of the FSU Russia technically became land-locked and lost a lot of water access for The Russian Federation.  To the West of Moscow you have Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania which was a big chunk of waterfront in the Baltic Sea.  To the South You have Ukraine which controlled the western shores of the Sea of Azov and the northern shores of the Black Sea.  You also have Georgia, to a lesser extent on the Black Sea.  Well we all know what happened with Georgia and Putin and now he technically controls that state.  Next he grabbed Crimea which is a fair chunk of waterway on the Black Sea and isn’t it a coincidence about the incursion into Donetsk and most recently Mariupol.  If he continues down eastern Ukraine to Crimea he will have complete control of the Sea of Azov.  Then his next grab and incursion just across the border will be Kharkov, and if you follow the E105 Due South from Kharkov that will be the new border up to where it meets the Dnieper River near Dnepropetrovsk.  Just past Zaporozhye the Dnieper turns and flows to the west and that will be the other dividing line to where he will cut straight across to Moldova so he can grab Odessa and the rest of the Ukrainian Black Sea waterfront.  With Russian Pro Separatists in Moldova they will not only help grab that part of Ukraine from a western front, but they will help secure Moldova as part of Putin’s Growing land grab.

Now, another school of thought is, Putin is fearful of Ukraine joining the EU with all the Russian speaking Ukrainians then seeing how much better things will be, which will spread that word across the border into Russia causing him to lose support for his hardline KGB ways.  That of course could also be the reason, but I think the waterfront land grab is really his bigger motivation.  After all, that will send a message to the West of “How Dare You Try and Spread Your Ways Further Isolating Russia…”  Putin knows that Europe has no stomach or desire to get into a conflict with Russia and knows the US will not go it alone in Europe’s backyard.  So, Putin fully knows the West will not do anything beyond sanctions to stop his aggression and desire to rebuild the USSR and regain waterfront for his navy.

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